多天持续 30℃ 以上高温,英国大批民众丧命是怎么回事

知乎日报 刘小豆;Jeffrey Zhao;郑梁;宋雪松 170℃ 评论

多天持续 30℃ 以上高温,英国大批民众丧命是怎么回事

图片:quapan / CC BY

为什么在英国持续多天30℃高温导致大批民众丧命?

刘小豆,德国空间规划

BBC今天的报道也有这一数据(估计已经被引用过很多次)。如上文所说,均为估计。

A leading public health research centre looked at the number of possible extra deaths due to the hot weather.
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) estimated 60 to 100 mostly elderly people may have died from 6-14 July.
Meanwhile, the Welsh Ambulance Service is calling on members of the public to take extra care.
Ben Armstrong, a professor in epidemiological statistics at LSHTM, said the deaths were likely to have been "overwhelmingly among the elderly, especially those over 75".
He said some of the deaths may have been "among people who would have died just a few weeks later if there had been no heatwave".
He also estimated that between 540 and 760 people may have died in England in the same period due to the weather.
翻译:
一家顶尖的公共卫生研究中心收集了可能由于高温天气而增加的死亡人数。
根据伦敦大学卫生和热带医学学院估计,在7月6日至14日期间约有600至100人死亡,其中绝大多数为年长者。
同时,威尔士急救中心呼吁公众加倍小心。
伦敦大学卫生和热带医学学院流行病统计学教授Ben Armstrong说这些死亡情况很有可能“主要发生在年长的,尤其是75岁以上人群之间”。他提到在这些死亡案例中,“即使没有热浪,有些人原本也会在几周后去世。”
他还估计在同一时期,整个英格兰可能约有540至760人因为天气原因而死亡。

原文地址:BBC News - Heatwave: 100 people in Wales could have died so far, according to study

Met Office提出热浪警报,同时表示仍旧有高危人群。

The reason for the alert system is to try and safeguard vulnerable people like children and the elderly.(预警系统的目的是为了保护诸如老人和孩子等较脆弱的人群。)

原文地址:BBC News - Heatwave: 'Level 3 means take action'

为了给民众普及人对热浪的反应,拿人民钱的BBC进行了一些科普,并隐喻表示

"Most amateur runners naturally slow down when they get too hot, but there are always people who keeping pushing themselves further and that's when things go wrong."
(大部分业余的跑步爱好者会在他们感到热的时候自然放慢速度,但总有一些人不断给他们加油,这样会使事情变得糟糕。)

原文地址:BBC News - What happens to the body in extreme heat?

救护车确实比历史同期出动频繁了30%http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23353104

并且还有各种奇葩的受伤状况:

He said DIY was popular in the hot weather and there had been "a number of patients losing fingers with circular saws".

"A patient also cut their finger off with a hedge clipper," he said.

"Another patient lost the top of a thumb shooting an air rifle, and another lost a finger after it got caught in a deck chair."

The centre has treated patients for sunburn - and overheated dogs have caused injuries as well.

Tom Potokar, consultant burns and plastic surgeon, said: "People may give their pet a hug and the dog may snap because it is too hot and the resulting bites can be quite serious.

"So you need to be sensitive of how the heat can affect dogs."
翻译:
他说,在炎热的天气下,自我伤害事件频繁发生。“有几个人在使用圆锯的时候锯掉了自己的手指头”

“一个伤者用树篱砍掉了自己的手指,”他说

“另一位伤者在玩气步枪的时候拇指上部被削掉,还有一位因为卡在折叠椅中而痛失一根手指。”

中心也治疗了许多晒伤以及被因为过热的狗咬伤的病人

整形外科及烧伤科顾问汤姆·波多卡(Tom Potokar)说:“有人可能就抱了一下狗,就被猛咬一口——因为狗实在太热了。而狗咬伤可能非常危险。”

“所以你也要小心:天热也会影响狗。”

原文地址:BBC News - Heatwave: 100 people in Wales could have died so far, according to study

连续近三周太阳都没休过假,不少伦敦人民也被过度的光照搞乱了生活秩序。以往调侃天气的对话实在无法继续:

今天很热。

据说明天也很热。
哦,是的。

今天很热。
哦,没错。

今天很热。
……(难道每天都是这一句吗???)

知乎用户,数码/科技/建筑设计/理性派

首先我要说,英国这30度,我感觉跟国内的40度是一样一样的。

下面进入正题,其实他们并没有统计到有那么多人死于酷热的天气。首先来看卡dailymail的原文:

A heatwave death toll has been calculated by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) for The Times. Researchers used temperature data supplied by the Met Office and compared the figures with previous studies conducted on deaths during heatwaves in Britain.
They found that between 540 and 760 people will have perished in England alone during the first nine days of the heatwave and warn the figures could easily double in the coming days.
UK heatwave 2013: It's going to get HOTTER as mercury predicted to soar to 95F

注意文中那个加粗斜体下划线的三个词,未来完成时表示该机构(LSHTM)的推测。而且第一段也说了,这个推测是根据往年的数据研究得来的。同时MSN新闻直接用了“estimate”这个词,所以我推定其实没死那么多人,只是个推测罢了。

=================

分割一下,现在谈谈自己对英国热死人的看法。我觉得所谓“热死”的说法其实是一个很大的概念,能真正引起死亡的案例,我个人觉得可能是因为炎热的天气引起的一些潜在的心脑血管疾病及其并发症的突发(非专业,有问题请指正)所导致的死亡。

Jeffrey Zhao

身在伦敦,深有体会。伦敦已经罕见的连续三个多星期没有下过雨了,每天的太阳都很大,真心感觉这么30多度的天气比国内热很多,不过还好,还能忍受。

对于大部分没有见过几次夏天的英国人来说可就兴奋了,每天晚上酒吧内外都聚满了人喝酒聊天,公园里的草地上更是都躺满了人

郑梁

在英国生活多年没有见过电扇空调, 这是一个9月能穿棉袄的国家

宋雪松,爱吃会做

伦敦最大的电器运营商之一(应该是最大的了)的电风扇已经全部卖脱销了- -

我最后在街口小店买了一台,还被宰了一刀- -

热的没办法- -

知乎用户,欺负人乃快乐之本

一直很稳定的环境突然改变,对人的伤害是挺大的,再加上高湿度地区出现高温的时候,身上出汗不能及时挥发出去,体温降不下来,那种感觉是很糟糕的,很多人能忍受沙漠地区50度的高温低湿,但是潮湿地区30多度就让人很痛苦了。

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